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SR: Ross Ulbricht charges re: “conspiring to murder” will turn out not to be true

Created by sdr on 2013-10-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-01.

  • sdr estimated 30% on 2013-10-02
  • sdr changed the deadline from “on 2014-06-01” and changed their prediction from “DPR arrest: allegations of “conspiring to murder” will turn out not to be true” on 2013-10-05
  • gwern estimated 25% and said “unless sdr objects, I plan to judge this more loosely as ‘reasonable persons would agree he did/didn’t’, and not necessarily the legal verdict.” on 2013-10-05
  • Tuxedage estimated 20% on 2013-10-05
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2013/11/ross-ulbricht-loses-bail/” on 2013-11-21
  • gwern said “there’s no exculpatory evidence so far except some confusion about whether some of the charges have been dropped or simply put on hold; going to mark this wrong” on 2014-12-01
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-01.