SR: DPR will not be found guilty on charges of money laundering (or conspiracy to commit money laundering).

Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-11.

• tedks estimated 1% on 2013-10-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2013-10-03
• tedks estimated 5% on 2013-10-04
• gwern estimated 15% and said “presumably this encompasses obscurer pleas like no-contest, right? this is true only if the charges are dropped or he is acquitted by a jury/judge on them.” on 2013-10-05
• tedks changed the deadline from “on 2015-10-03” and changed their prediction from “DPR will not be found guilty on charges of money laundering (or conspiracy to commit money laundering).” on 2013-10-05
• tedks said “This is intended to be a predictionbook corollary to a betsofbitcoin statement I submitted. I’ll judge it true if he’s acquitted, the charges are dropped, or any other circumstance prevents his pleading guilty or being convicted.” on 2013-10-05
• gwern said “but what about no-contest?” on 2013-10-05
• tedks said “No contest counts as guilty.” on 2013-10-06
• tedks said “Also, was this prediction edited to have the ’SR: ’ preface?” on 2013-10-06
• drobb estimated 30% on 2013-10-08
• tedks said “Bets of Bitcoin: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1754” on 2013-10-11
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-06-11.
• kuudes said “http://www.wired.com/2015/02/silk-road-ross-ulbricht-verdict/ “Silk Road Mastermind Ross Ulbricht Convicted of All 7 Charges”” on 2015-06-11