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SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 1 year.

Created by gwern on 2013-10-04; known on 2014-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-05.

  • gwern estimated 60% on 2013-10-04
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2014-10-04” and changed their prediction from “The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 1 year.” on 2013-10-04
  • jbeshir estimated 60% on 2013-10-04
  • gwern said “this includes bruteforcing the passphrase, guessing it, eavesdropping on DPR’s attempt to smuggle info out, or convincing him to give up the passphrase for better treatment.” on 2013-10-04
  • Tuxedage estimated 40% on 2013-10-04
  • gwern said “basically, if the government somehow sells $100m+ of bitcoins, this prediction probably came true” on 2013-10-04
  • gwern said “I think this one was wrong since the US auction was just for the 30k btc on the SR1 server but I’m not sure since one of the supposed DPR addresses moved, IIRC” on 2014-10-05
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-10-05.