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Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-11-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-10.

  • gwern estimated 80% on 2013-10-05
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2013-10-29
  • gwern said “Still up! Why?on 2013-11-10
  • gwern said “possibilities: it was prepaid for more than a month by DPR; it was hooked to his credit card or bank account, which have not been emptied; Libertas or another SR employee is paying for it (dangerous and careless); government is paying for iton 2013-11-10
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-11-10.