The Swiss Basic Income initiative will pass the vote and be implemented.

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-06-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

• Tuxedage estimated 20% on 2013-10-05
• Tuxedage changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-01” and changed their prediction from “The Swiss Basic Income policy will be implemented.” on 2013-10-05
• gwern estimated 10% on 2013-10-05
• iamchristopher estimated 35% on 2013-10-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% and said “I’m assuming it will be false if it is passed, but with a lower monthly value.” on 2013-10-05
• RandomThinker estimated 20% on 2013-10-06
• schimmy estimated 35% and said “gut reaction- without much research beyond shallow reading of news articles” on 2013-10-08
• timesuptim estimated 30% and said “there are enough “sound economic reasons” for this to be desirable. Swiss immigration is complex, so this might be a way to keep non citizens in even lower wage classes…” on 2013-10-16
• Tuxedage changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-02” on 2014-01-03
• Tuxedage said “Extended the deadline because outcome has not yet been decided.” on 2014-01-03
• fela estimated 16% on 2014-01-04
• Nithi estimated 15% on 2014-01-23
• RandomThinker estimated 35% and said “If you keep extending the deadline on this eventually it’ll be implemented.” on 2014-07-07
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-01.