“By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day.” —John Feminella

Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-21.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2011-01-25
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/597” on 2011-01-25
• Nic_Smith estimated 40% on 2011-01-26
• Nic_Smith estimated 70% on 2011-10-22
• PseudonymousUser estimated 75% on 2011-10-22
• RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2012-05-19
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 70% and said “QQ already has more users than Facebook, right?” on 2012-05-19
• gimpf estimated 40% and said “Thx Jayson, would have forgotten about China. Still, no, QQ hes fewer users. Facebook is currently at about 900 mio; that’s more than Chinese people using the Web. I bet more on India et al. going FB or own route (like Russia, Brazil).” on 2012-05-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2012-05-20
• gwern said “As far as I know, FB is still king, having continued to expand globally. anyone think this is right?” on 2016-01-21
• JoshuaZ said “Seems right. ” on 2016-01-21
• JoshuaZ said “Seems right. ” on 2016-01-21
• JoshuaZ said “Er, by right I mean, Gwern’s comment. The prediction itself is wrong.” on 2016-01-21
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-21.
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/” on 2016-01-21
• PseudonymousUser said “They already had 608 million active users by the end of 2010 so I should have known better” on 2016-01-21