Spice & Wolf season 3 will be released within 5 years.

Created by gwern on 2013-10-08; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-10-08.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2013-10-08
• gwern said “prompted by http://www.reddit.com/r/SpiceandWolf/comments/1nytdw/why_does_it_seem_like_there_is_no_season_3_coming/ ; ‘season 3’ defined as >200 minutes of new animation covering events from the light novels.” on 2013-10-08
• Athrithalix estimated 2% on 2018-02-23
• crabman estimated 10% on 2018-02-26
• gwern said “This turned out to be more likely than I thought: not only did a new LN series start, the Collector’s Edition & new figures released, there’s also a VR game coming out! A third season looks more plausible than before.” on 2018-10-08
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-10-08.