Natalie Portman will win 2011 Best Actress Oscar —John Scalzi

Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.

• gwern estimated 65% on 2011-01-27
• gwern said “http://whatever.scalzi.com/2011/01/26/oscar-predictions-2011/” on 2011-01-27
• kallman estimated 70% and said “Reasoning is soumd. I expect a snub though, black swan was pretty odd :P” on 2011-01-28
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-02-28.