Amy Adams will win 2011 Best Supporting Actress Oscar. —John Scalzi

Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-02-28.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-01-27
• gwern said “http://whatever.scalzi.com/2011/01/26/oscar-predictions-2011/” on 2011-01-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-02-28.
• gwern said “Melissa Leo” on 2011-02-28