Both major party presidential candidates will express support for softening punishments for drug offenses during the 2016 US presidential campaign.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 70% on 2013-10-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% and said “Presuming that by “both” you mean the Republican and Democratic candidates. ” on 2013-10-18
• Peter Hurford estimated 33% on 2013-10-21
• adbge estimated 35% on 2013-10-21
• Jayson Virissimo said ““Support” is underdefined. Does this mean saying in a debate that penalties are too harsh, actually using their executive power to decrease penalties, or what?” on 2013-10-22
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2016-12-31” and changed their prediction from “Both presidential candidates in 2016 will support softening punishments for drug offenses.” on 2013-10-24
• NathanMcKnight said “Jayson: I’m going with a broad metric on this one. Would include suggestions to reschedule, early release of convicts, decriminalization, commutation, etc. ” on 2015-11-04
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.