Mubarak will cease to be Egypt's President by 2012.

Created by gwern on 2011-02-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-11.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-02-01
• gwern said “http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2011/01/egypt-who-wins-mubarak-or-the-protest.html makes me think that Mubarak is past the danger point” on 2011-02-01
• scav estimated 55% and said “There is a lot of support inside and outside Egypt for the protesters – I don’t think it will just go away.” on 2011-02-01
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=746229&z=1296580012859 ” on 2011-02-01
• gwern said “Intrade says 70% he’s gone by next February – but has fallen 10% recently” on 2011-02-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2011-02-02
• kallman estimated 85% and said “He can’t be called a president even while his country has spiraled out of control, imho.” on 2011-02-02
• kallman said “Though, “not recognized internationally as…” is how I can take the wording here I suppose?” on 2011-02-02
• gimpf estimated 55% on 2011-02-03
• gwern said “note this isn’t the same as intrade’s oddly closed contract. he has to actually not be president on 1 Jan 2012, not merely have said something” on 2011-02-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2011-02-10
• gwern said “seems fair enough to close this as right: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/12/world/middleeast/12egypt.html” on 2011-02-11
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-02-11.