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BMR will not be operating in 12 months

Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-10-30.

  • gwern estimated 50% on 2013-10-30
  • gwern said “underconfident, if anything. well, I know better now.” on 2014-10-30
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2014-10-30.