Gwern's real identity is Andre Lahs.

Created by WhoIsGwernAnyway on 2013-10-31; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by WhoIsGwernAnyway on 2013-10-31.

• WhoIsGwernAnyway estimated 90% on 2013-10-31
• WhoIsGwernAnyway said “https://plus.google.com/116351289085764820132/posts” on 2013-10-31
• WhoIsGwernAnyway said “http://trikeapps.com/about/andre-lahs/” on 2013-10-31
• WhoIsGwernAnyway said “Main evidence that set me on this track: https://github.com/tricycle/predictionbook/issues/3” on 2013-10-31
• WhoIsGwernAnyway said “Andre talks about code “excerpted from my Nootropics essay where I am judging my Adderall predictions”. This code snippet matchs up with code in Gwern’s nootropics essay.” on 2013-10-31
• WhoIsGwernAnyway said “Other details add plausability: Andre is associated with TrikeApps/predictionbook, and has almost no internet presence (under that name.)” on 2013-10-31
• WhoIsGwernAnyway said “However, when I emailed Gwern about it, he denied the claim. He says that Andre was quoting him in that post, and although it was not marked as a quote or attributed in any way to anyone.” on 2013-10-31
• WhoIsGwernAnyway said “I accept that. At times people are unclear with their comunication, and althogh this case is pretty grievous, I can see it.” on 2013-10-31
• WhoIsGwernAnyway   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-10-31.
• WhoIsGwernAnyway said “So, I did not expect it to go this way when I started. I thought I had a pretty good case. But Gwern said I could post about it, although I offered to keep quiet, and that is what convinced me most of all.” on 2013-10-31
• WhoIsGwernAnyway changed the deadline from “on 2013-11-01” and made the prediction on 2013-10-31
• gwern said “my point was that Lahs did include a <hr> divider between what I wrote and his own comments” on 2013-11-01