43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc
Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.
- gwern estimated 85% on 2013-11-03
- gwern said “http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1pta82/precommitment/” on 2013-11-03
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% on 2013-11-03
- PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2013-11-06
- PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2013-11-07
- Nic_Smith estimated 83% and said “Just going with the current value for the 80% bin on gwern’s profile.” on 2013-11-11
- tedks estimated 50% and said “Gwern, you magnificent bastard.” on 2013-11-15
- JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2013-11-15
- Grognor said “Metaprediction: whatever this is will make me feel bad.” on 2013-11-15
- ZLM estimated 80% and said “Huh…” on 2014-02-11
- rebellionkid estimated 90% on 2014-05-22
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2014-06-03.
- rebellionkid said “I’ve missed the announcement of what this said. Can someone link me? ” on 2014-06-06
- ygert said “@rebellionkid: http://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1ptd6b/precommitment_proof_of_knowledge_about_a/” on 2014-06-06
- ygert said “Full details: http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=9spTATw6” on 2014-06-06
- dndtdong said “[b][url=http://jp.handbagfashion.org/]ルイヴィトンのハンドバッグ[/url][/b][b]<a href="http://www.handbagfashion.org/jp/">ルイヴィトンのハンドバッグ</a>[/b]<strong><a href="http://www.handbagfashion.org/jp/">シャネルのハンドバッグ</a></strong> |” on 2014-09-11