Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election.
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
- najdorf estimated 75% on 2013-11-11
- procran estimated 40% on 2013-11-11
- JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “Conjunction fallacy issues: must decide to run, must win the Democratic primary, and must then win the general election. Taken together with her prior health problems. ” on 2013-11-11
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2013-11-11
- olivia estimated 20% on 2013-11-12
- najdorf estimated 10% and said “Yes I think I overestimated my prognosticatory powers. But I am counting on the idiocy of the American public.” on 2013-11-12
- gwern estimated 10% and said “She’s too old and tired, and post-White-House life too tempting.” on 2013-11-12
- adbge estimated 10% on 2013-11-12
- atroche estimated 30% and said “Based on http://bit.ly/1apMnik (odds from bookmakers)” on 2013-11-13
- atroche said “@gwern do you really know that much about Hilary Clinton’s internal life?” on 2013-11-13
- gwern said “atroche: she is the most prominent female politician in the USA, and one of the most prominent in the world.” on 2013-11-14
- PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2013-11-14
- mortehu estimated 10% on 2013-11-16
- fela estimated 11% on 2013-11-19
- Patrick Brinich-Langlois estimated 10% on 2013-11-20
- Rowan93 estimated 5% on 2014-01-24
- Ham Nox estimated 20% on 2014-04-28
- rebellionkid estimated 20% on 2014-05-22
- Ken estimated 40% on 2014-06-11
- deleteyourbrain estimated 1% on 2014-10-13
- booradleytron estimated 60% on 2014-10-15
- InquilineKea estimated 55% on 2015-07-24
- JoshuaZ estimated 62% and said “Updated to keep same as http://predictionbook.com/predictions/100574 which is copy. See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/119033 for Hillary blowout. ” on 2015-07-24
- NathanMcKnight estimated 70% on 2015-08-23
- NathanMcKnight estimated 75% and said “Updating based on recent GOP antics.” on 2015-11-03
- PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2016-01-04
- equivrel estimated 70% on 2016-02-14
- themusicgod1 estimated 34% on 2016-03-11
- themusicgod1 estimated 33% on 2016-03-11
- ioannes estimated 60% on 2016-03-26
- Pfft estimated 75% on 2016-05-04
- WilliamKiely estimated 85% on 2016-06-14
- WilliamKiely estimated 80% on 2016-06-14
- PseudonymousUser estimated 70% and said “quite a change from 2013” on 2016-07-13
- splorridge estimated 46% on 2016-07-26
- splorridge estimated 64% on 2016-08-19
- Avadak estimated 60% on 2016-09-25
- NathanMcKnight estimated 78% on 2016-09-26
- two2thehead estimated 80% and said “Duplicating my prediction from elsewhere on this site.” on 2016-09-27
- two2thehead estimated 90% on 2016-10-13
- themusicgod1 judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.