'A distributed naming system for Web/broadcast content will gain substantial mindshare and measurable US usage after the trifecta of attacks on Wikileaks DNS, COICA, and further attacks on privacy-preserving or anonymous registration in the ICANN-sponsore

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2011-02-14
• gwern said “http://www.freedom-to-tinker.com/blog/tblee/predictions-2011” on 2011-02-14
• gwern said “switching to another DNS system is hard. how do you get users to edit their DNSs? alternative will get no traction if it cutting yourself off from the world” on 2011-02-14
• gwern said “measurable usage? not that I know of. the only system that even works is namecoin, which is approximately a zero, even in the bitcoin niche” on 2012-01-02
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-02.