Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01

• najdorf estimated 3% on 2013-11-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2013-11-12
• gwern estimated 5% and said “2050 is a long time away.” on 2013-11-12
• mortehu estimated 1% on 2013-11-16
• Lagren estimated 1% and said “Possible but highly unlikely. You’d have to oust the Orthodox church first.” on 2013-12-14
• ewang estimated 2% on 2013-12-15
• Rowan93 estimated 1% on 2014-01-24
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% and said “Very difficult to change a culture that much. ” on 2016-01-10
• Peteris estimated 0% and said “Any such internal shift is unlikely. An external shift to this very specific outcome has a low base rate.” on 2016-05-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-05-04
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2018-12-12
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26