Bitcoin <$230 on Bitstamp at the start of 1 December 2013

Created by gwern on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-01.

• gwern estimated 8% on 2013-11-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on 2013-11-17
• nshepperd estimated 11% and said “An extremely crude model tells me that I could (on expectation) “beat the market” by selling now and buying on 1 Dec iff p > 22%. I don’t think I can beat the market, so that’s an upper bound at least.” on 2013-11-18
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2013-11-19
• Smaug estimated 15% on 2013-11-23
• wiilly estimated 0% on 2013-11-24
• Reflektor estimated 2% on 2013-11-26
• gwern said “$1023; marking wrong” on 2013-12-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-01.