Bitcoin suffers a crash by the end of 2014, defined as falling to below 20% of its all-time high. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

• ArisKatsaris estimated 20% on 2013-11-20
• lavalamp estimated 22% on 2013-11-22
• gwern said “alltime high so far is ~$900 mtgox, 0.8 * 900 = 720, mtgox has fallen that far already…? (24h low: $682)” on 2013-11-22
• lavalamp said “Not fall by 20%, fall to 20% of ATH.” on 2013-11-22
• gwern estimated 30% and said “Oh. So that would be <$180 then, at the present moment.” on 2013-11-22
• Michael Dickens estimated 50% on 2013-12-19
• Ken estimated 20% on 2014-06-11
• rebellionkid estimated 10% on 2014-06-12
• kuudes estimated 33% on 2014-10-27
• kuudes said “Coindesk.com ATH 1147.34 USD 4th Dec 2013, so target would seem to be 229.468 USD per BTC. Current lowest since ATH 319.64$ on 5th Oct 2014” on 2014-11-23
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-31.