Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years

Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-23.

• gwern estimated 45% on 2013-11-22
• oooo estimated 75% on 2013-11-23
• oooo estimated 50% and said “My original estimate was too optimistic, not taking into account other potential disruptions to the original bitcoin network and viability in 60 months.” on 2013-11-23
• gimpf estimated 75% on 2013-11-24
• lavalamp estimated 20% on 2013-11-26
• davidmanheim estimated 5% and said “There are many vested interests in bitcoin infrastructure that would be damaged by the currency being rendered more useful for truely anonymous illegal transactions.” on 2015-03-29
• ArturoGoosnargh estimated 10% on 2015-07-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2015-07-30
• Andrew MacFie said “not likely to be incorporated into BTC, more likely to be its own currency” on 2016-01-02
• davidmanheim estimated 4% and said “(Notice Zooko’s launch of Zerocash.)” on 2016-01-28
• equivrel estimated 15% and said “I take this to mean the bulk of the technology in ZC is actually incorporated into Bitcoin. If this means bitcoin may have some feature inspired by independent zerocoin development, then much higer. ” on 2016-02-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2016-03-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 34% and said “Bitcoin community is fragmented and busy fighting eachother/outside interests, even on 5 year timeline.” on 2016-03-18
• jesselevine estimated 2% on 2016-03-18
• gwern said “nowhere close to being added. in 2013 I was a little worried about inertia but in retrospect, I didn’t expect it to be anywhere near as bad as it has been in the 5 years since…” on 2018-11-23
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-11-23.