Any of Eva Ask/Jyrki Katainen/François Hollande/Barack Obama/Ben Bernanke/Keith Alexander/James Clapper killed within 5 years.
- gwern estimated 5% on 2013-11-23
- gwern said “car accident, shooting, stabbing, bombing etc. but not cancer, heart attack, clearly self-caused accident and so on. This is related to ‘Assassination Market’ http://assmkedzgorodn7o.onion/” on 2013-11-23
- gwern said “only as high as 5% inasmuch as politicians occasionally get targeted even without bounties on their heads and regardless of AM being a scam or not” on 2013-11-23
- hedges estimated 3% on 2014-03-03
- adbge estimated 6% on 2014-03-05
- gwern judged this prediction wrong 23 days ago.
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