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Any of Eva Ask/Jyrki Katainen/François Hollande/Barack Obama/Ben Bernanke/Keith Alexander/James Clapper killed within 5 years.

Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2018-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-24.

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2013-11-23
  • gwern said “car accident, shooting, stabbing, bombing etc. but not cancer, heart attack, clearly self-caused accident and so on. This is related to ‘Assassination Market’ http://assmkedzgorodn7o.onion/” on 2013-11-23
  • gwern said “only as high as 5% inasmuch as politicians occasionally get targeted even without bounties on their heads and regardless of AM being a scam or not” on 2013-11-23
  • hedges estimated 3% on 2014-03-03
  • adbge estimated 6% on 2014-03-05
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-11-24.