Assassination Market will still be up in 1 year.
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2014-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-24.
- gwern estimated 40% on 2013-11-23
- gwern said “AM here is http://assmkedzgorodn7o.onion/ or another site endorsed by a statement signed by Sanjuro’s key posted on that hidden service” on 2013-11-23
- PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2013-11-24
- PAUL_D74 estimated 70% on 2014-02-06
- gwern said “nope” on 2014-11-24
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2014-11-24.
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