Assassination Market will still be up in 1 year.

Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2014-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-24.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2013-11-23
• gwern said “AM here is http://assmkedzgorodn7o.onion/ or another site endorsed by a statement signed by Sanjuro’s key posted on that hidden service” on 2013-11-23
• PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2013-11-24
• PAUL_D74 estimated 70% on 2014-02-06
• gwern said “nope” on 2014-11-24
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-11-24.