Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 150-349$ (mtgox prices)

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.

• ArisKatsaris estimated 5% on 2013-11-24
• lavalamp estimated 3% and said “Ugh, I didn’t do these in the right order and my probabilities don’t sum to 100%.” on 2013-11-26
• tedks estimated 1% on 2013-12-01
• gwern estimated 5% on 2013-12-04
• gwern said “dropped this when I was calculating my own responses, so now I have to subtract 5% from all the others…” on 2013-12-04
• Michael Dickens estimated 20% on 2013-12-19
• ArisKatsaris   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.