Takers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate

Created by Grognor on 2013-11-27; known on 2014-01-12; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-19.

• Grognor estimated 75% on 2013-11-27
• Grognor said “Being as strict as feasible about “more often”: Wikipedia says “Globally, roughly 12% of men and 10% of women are left-handed.” So I’ll only count this as a yes if men report 13% or higher AND women 11% or higher” on 2013-11-27
• Grognor said “I am already suspecting that I was underconfident. oh well” on 2013-11-27
• adbge estimated 60% on 2013-11-27
• Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2013-01-11” on 2013-11-27
• gwern said “was there a left/right-handed question…?” on 2013-12-04
• gwern estimated 65% on 2013-12-04
• CarlShulman estimated 63% on 2013-12-08
• Michael Dickens estimated 60% on 2013-12-19
• bendini estimated 80% and said “Left handed people are weird and the people in the LW community are weird. Therefore according to my flawed logic there will be a higher percentage of left handed respondents to the survey than there is in the general population.” on 2013-12-27
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2013-12-30
• fela estimated 57% on 2014-01-04
• Grognor   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-19.
• bendini said “did not see that coming” on 2014-01-20