By 2015, China will outlaw bitcoin, or otherwise do something to to make it impossible or very difficult to use bitcoin to evade their capital controls.

Created by lavalamp on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.

• lavalamp estimated 20% on 2013-11-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2013-11-28
• gwern said “need better definition here” on 2013-12-04
• RandomThinker said “Is it really that easy to use bitcoin to evade Chinese capital controls now? Also, they just did something recently, did that count?” on 2013-12-07
• lavalamp said “I made this because I was skeptical that the bitcoin trading in china was for the purpose of evading capital controls. It turns out to be less clear of a prediction than it should be. China has now stated that btc is a commodity, not a currency,” on 2013-12-09
• lavalamp said “, which I believe means that it will continue to be possible to use btc to evade Chinese capital controls, at least for the moment. We’ll see. http://siliconangle.com/blog/2013/12/08/bitcoin-china-meaning/?angle=silicon” on 2013-12-09
• lavalamp   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-02.