http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith

Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-02-19
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/601” on 2011-02-19
• gwern said “I strongly disagree. I mean, this is a site run by the Long Now foundation, and it’s an easy URL to keep going.” on 2011-02-19
• PseudonymousUser estimated 55% on 2011-02-19
• TheScholar estimated 10% and said “On the condition that the internet, the web, dns, etc is still around in 11 years…” on 2011-03-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-09-03
• gwern said “discussion: http://blog.longnow.org/2012/03/23/long-bets-bet-how-durable-are-urls/” on 2012-03-23
• themusicgod1 estimated 12% on 2016-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-07
• Baeboo estimated 3% on 2019-01-08
• qznc estimated 1% on 2022-01-02
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-02-18.