http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith
Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.
- gwern estimated 10% on 2011-02-19
- gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/601” on 2011-02-19
- gwern said “I strongly disagree. I mean, this is a site run by the Long Now foundation, and it’s an easy URL to keep going.” on 2011-02-19
- PseudonymousUser estimated 55% on 2011-02-19
- TheScholar estimated 10% and said “On the condition that the internet, the web, dns, etc is still around in 11 years…” on 2011-03-17
- JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-09-03
- gwern said “discussion: http://blog.longnow.org/2012/03/23/long-bets-bet-how-durable-are-urls/” on 2012-03-23
- themusicgod1 estimated 12% on 2016-10-07
- JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2016-10-07
- pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-07
- Baeboo estimated 3% on 2019-01-08
- qznc estimated 1% on 2022-01-02
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2022-02-18.