I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015.

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 45% on 2013-11-30
• PseudonymousUser said “Hopefully this time I will remember that I made this prediction, as it is part of what ensures I won’t.” on 2013-11-30
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2013-11-30
• tedks estimated 1% on 2013-12-01
• gwern estimated 10% on 2013-12-04
• PseudonymousUser said “How’s it going?” on 2013-12-20
• PseudonymousUser said “lol bobpage, so far so good” on 2013-12-21
• Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2013-12-29
• tkadlubo estimated 1% on 2014-01-01
• tkadlubo said “That’s a big change in life to get right on your second attempt (given how your first prediction went)” on 2014-01-01
• a0c4a123f7 estimated 10% and said “Even if the prob on any day is small, that’s a lot of days.” on 2014-01-01
• adbge estimated 5% on 2014-01-01
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-06.