'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' —ivan

Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-02-25.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2011-02-24
• PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2011-02-24
• gwern estimated 95% on 2011-02-24
• papermachine estimated 95% on 2011-05-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 98% on 2011-06-11
• lavalamp estimated 88% on 2011-11-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 98% on 2016-07-30
• lavalamp said “is everyone including past-me reading this backwards? This is predicting that bitcoins will go to basically $0?” on 2017-06-05
• Jayson Virissimo said “Yes, it was (and still might be) a very common opinion that Bitcoin’s value will approach zero.” on 2017-06-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 17% and said “I’m not sure what I was thinking. Hedge?” on 2017-06-06
• PseudonymousUser said “oh dear” on 2017-06-06
• PseudonymousUser said “In 2011 Bitcoin was just 2 years old & trading at $1/BTC. I think my reasoning was based on Moldbug Monetary Theory: it either becomes universal money (in the trillion-market cap range) or near-worthless; did not expect drawn-out valuation climb” on 2017-06-06
• pranomostro estimated 12% on 2019-01-07
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2019-01-08
• Meisel estimated 0% and said “Unlikely. ” on 2021-01-03
• evand estimated 1% on 2021-02-14
• evand estimated 0% on 2021-02-14
• iconreforged estimated 0% on 2021-02-14
• kuudes estimated 0% on 2021-02-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-02-25.