Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

• RandomThinker estimated 45% on 2013-12-07
• RandomThinker said “http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/05/who-is-the-real-satoshi-nakamoto-one-researcher-may-have-found-the-answer/?ncid=tcdaily Best idea I’ve heard so far, although keying on one person is always difficult.” on 2013-12-07
• RandomThinker said “I still think there’s more conspiracy behind it. I’m looking for a right wing billionaire behind this. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/17856” on 2013-12-07
• gwern estimated 15% and said “RandomThinker, please see my criticism of that person’s claims linked in the comments.” on 2013-12-09
• Lagren estimated 25% and said “Some decent evidence, but hardly a preponderance.” on 2013-12-14
• ewang estimated 4% on 2013-12-15
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2013-12-17
• Michael Dickens estimated 15% on 2013-12-19
• fela estimated 23% on 2014-01-04
• gwern estimated 33% and said “updating based on falsifying some earlier arguments & finding additional Szabo info” on 2014-04-07
• Ken estimated 10% on 2014-06-11
• gwern estimated 40% on 2014-09-09
• Grognor estimated 10% on 2014-09-09
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 30% on 2014-09-10
• anonym estimated 15% on 2014-09-30
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 35% on 2015-07-09
• sflicht estimated 25% on 2015-08-25
• PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2015-09-01
• Andrew MacFie estimated 40% on 2015-09-02
• gwern estimated 5% on 2015-11-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “So to be clear, this is that NS is SN and this will be known by 2020? In that case, the soon end date helps strongly reduce the probability. ” on 2015-11-15
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% and said “I Was Wrong” on 2015-12-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 36% and said “gwern, why the drop from 40% to 5%?” on 2016-01-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 8% on 2016-04-14
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-11-18
• two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-11-19
• gwern estimated 20% on 2018-03-08
• Baeboo estimated 11% on 2018-03-11
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 14% on 2018-12-12
• Baeboo estimated 11% on 2018-12-12
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
• Bruno Parga said “Since we haven’t figured out SN’s identity yet, I’m marking all relevant predictions wrong. Similar predictions with different end dates might still be correct.” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.