The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-11-14.
- Adam estimated 99% on 2008-09-22
- Adam said “sauce” on 2008-09-22
- Glenn estimated 99% and said “Crazy, I’m in.” on 2008-09-24
- anonym judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
- anonym judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
- anonym estimated 98% on 2009-10-17
- gwern estimated 40% and said “You only need one lucky guess, or one repeated target while conscious, or one erroneous machine reading. And there are a lot of subjects.” on 2010-07-29
- kallman estimated 50% and said “It’s a beaver holding a tangerine. Problem is the specific nature – how close is correct? Rat in a dress.. ” on 2010-11-23
- gimpf estimated 99% and said “I interpret as “will be”, not as “will be reported as by some stupid media outlet”.” on 2010-12-13
- gimpf estimated 25% and said “OK, I will start reading the headline twice before deciding the next time. “entirely” is a strong word.” on 2010-12-13
- Laurent Bossavit said “tags: science, nde” on 2011-09-04
- HonoreDB estimated 99% on 2011-09-20
- JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-09-20
- gwern said “researched this. summary: not finished until late 2011/2012, but not looking good for NDE enthusiasts… http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-89926/Scientists-discover-near-death-evidence.html” on 2011-09-25
- gwern said “http://www.croydonguardian.co.uk/news/8798707.Croydon_hospital_studies_life_after_death/ especially this interview: http://www.horizonresearch.org/main_page.php?cat_id=233” on 2011-09-25
- Adam changed the deadline from “on 2011-09-22” on 2011-09-25
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2012-07-03
- gwern said “http://forum.mind-energy.net/skeptiko-haven/2390-aware-study-information-please.html http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread872432/pg1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Parnia apparently results will be in his February 2013 book. bumping again” on 2012-08-28
- Adam changed the deadline from “on 2012-03-22” on 2012-08-28
- gwern said “reviews of Erasing Death: The Science That is Rewriting the Boundaries Between Life and Death don’t seem to answer the question & it’s not on libgen.” on 2013-07-01
- gwern said “http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115512/unification-church-profile-fall-house-moon mentions no successes in parnia’s earlier work, and he’s trying out something new and more materialistic. I’m going to call this one right.” on 2013-11-14
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2013-11-14.
- gwern said “http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/03/the-science-of-near-death-experiences/386231/?single_page=true confirms: no hits” on 2015-03-18
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