Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014.

Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.

waveman estimated 80% on 2014-01-21
waveman said “His attempts to find a pain-free way to lose weight will fail. He will not yet come to accept that a willingness to experience hunger is a prerequisite to losing weight. ” on 2014-01-21
procran estimated 70% on 2014-01-21
mad estimated 80% and said “His attitude about weight loss seems unrealistic, so I don’t think he’s got much chance” on 2014-01-21
Jayson Virissimo estimated 65% and said “My personal experience contradicts your claim waveman, but yeah, outside view it is.” on 2014-01-21
ygert estimated 80% on 2014-01-21
JamieDuerden estimated 75% and said “I’m not sold on ketosis as a significant weight loss method, particularly when the diet itself is both experimental and continually varying due to ‘improvements’.” on 2014-01-21
ciil estimated 80% on 2014-01-21
waveman said “Jayson: How old are you. I found I could lose weight painlessly until about age 25. After that the pain level grew and grew.” on 2014-01-22
briennestrohl estimated 60% and said “The new diet is going very surprisingly well, but my priors still outweigh that for long-term success.” on 2014-01-22
Michael Dickens estimated 75% on 2014-01-23
znode estimated 70% and said “What exactly is the quantification of “visibly overweight”?” on 2014-01-23
Tuxedage said “I would like to know this too.” on 2014-01-23
PseudonymousUser said “I’m with znode and Tuxedage. Not putting a number on this until it can be determined independent of your opinion.” on 2014-01-23
ciil said “znode: I guess a couple of the people with wagers on it will judge, and then the majority opinion of “visibly overweight” will shine through.” on 2014-01-23
Rowan93 estimated 60% on 2014-01-24
Patrick Brinich-Langlois estimated 80% on 2014-01-27
Andrew MacFie estimated 60% on 2014-01-27
Tenoke estimated 70% on 2014-01-30
Tenoke estimated 70% and said “Additionally, Brienne has estimated 60% and she probably has the best insider information here. However, it seems likely that she is at least partially overconfident.(honeymoon period of the diet etc.)” on 2014-01-30
reubensandwich estimated 90% on 2014-01-30
kilobug estimated 70% on 2014-01-31
waveman said “EY has stated that even losing a pound a week would result in him still being visibly overweight. So I am going to judge this one as true and start a new one.” on 2014-02-01
waveman judged this prediction right on 2014-02-01.
waveman said “Replacement prediction here http://predictionbook.com/predictions/23621” on 2014-02-01
waveman said “Perhaps I should not have done this. My conscious motive was a) calibrate my predictioning b) learn something about weight loss, which is difficult.” on 2014-02-01
Tenoke judged this prediction unknown on 2014-02-01.
Tenoke said “What are you doing? Just because you suddenly decided that it will be impossible for him to stop looking overweight in a year based on some comment doesn’t mean that it is so. Please wait until 2015 to pass judgement.” on 2014-02-01
waveman said “Well theoretically I guess he could lose that amount, but he told me a( there is no change he will lose enough by then and b) He is not trying. I will check at the end of the year and update the prediction if required. ” on 2014-02-05
waveman estimated 1% and said “He has stated that at any feasible rate he will not get there by EOY 2014. And he is not trying to get there (not overweight by then). So this will only happen in the event of some horrible illness.” on 2014-02-05
waveman estimated 99% and said “Had it around the wrong way.” on 2014-02-05
Tenoke estimated 85% on 2014-02-05
waveman said “From his facebook page he is still visibly overweight. ” on 2015-01-02
waveman judged this prediction right on 2015-01-02.