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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016.

Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.

  • waveman estimated 70% on 2014-02-01
  • waveman on 2014-02-01
  • waveman said “The point here is not to ridicule anyone’s efforts to lose weight but to calibrate my predicting, and to learn something about weight loss.on 2014-02-01
  • Tuxedage said “How will this be quantified? on 2014-02-13
  • waveman said “Judging by his facebook pic the answer is he is still visibly overweight.on 2015-01-02
  • waveman   judged this prediction right on 2015-01-02.
  • waveman   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-02.
  • waveman   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-01-02.
  • David estimated 80% on 2015-07-03
  • David estimated 80% and said “This says “at the end of 2016” but the date known is set to the end of 2015.on 2015-07-03
  • RoryS estimated 70% on 2015-07-04
  • jkadlubo estimated 20% and said “Given Brienne’s care, this seems less likely.on 2015-07-04
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-01.
  • waveman said “He has subsequently lost a lot of weight, and claims BF% of 24% down from 50%.on 2020-01-01