“By Dec 31, 2013 the total volume of payments denominated in Facebook Credits (or any replacement introduced by Facebook) will meet or exceed $16 billion in a three month period.” —Shamir Karkal

Created by gwern on 2011-03-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-03-12
• gwern said “I don’t see $64 billion annually being exchanged on FB, certainly not in roughly two years.” on 2011-03-12
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/607” on 2011-03-12
• PseudonymousUser said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook_Credits” on 2013-11-16
• PseudonymousUser said “‘While the Facebook Credits website is still active, Facebook has announced that it is doing away with Facebook Credits in favor of local currency.’” on 2013-11-16
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.