Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.

• Mel Eclarinal estimated 20% on 2011-03-16
• Ben Doherty estimated 2% and said “It would take too long to replace them with an alternative to shut them all down by 2020” on 2011-03-16
• DavidPercival estimated 99% and said “I’m with Ben, until an alternative is found we cannot even consider eliminating ‘clean’ nuclear power” on 2011-03-17
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 1% on 2011-03-17
• Ben Doherty said “http://bbc.in/hhzBsHBBC: “Merkel calls time on nuclear age” – I still think that 2020 is too soon, but if it were to be 2050…” on 2011-03-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2011-03-18
• gwern estimated 99% and said “this is doable, if you have a few trillion dollars to spare for defueling the reactors and building replacement capacity” on 2011-03-18
• schrödinger   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-03-26.
• schrödinger   judged this prediction right on 2011-03-26.
• schrödinger   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-03-26.
• Mel Eclarinal   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-03-28.
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2011-08-10
• JoshuaZ said “David and Gwern, did you mean to estimate against when you estimated for? ” on 2011-08-10
• gwern estimated 1% and said “whups” on 2011-11-23
• Anubhav estimated 1% on 2011-11-24
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 1% on 2012-04-29
• lukas estimated 2% on 2012-05-24
• JoeK estimated 1% on 2012-05-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 5% on 2016-07-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-07
• Athrithalix estimated 2% on 2018-02-22
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-07
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2019-01-08
• amadeu estimated 0% on 2019-04-07
• Pablo estimated 0% on 2019-12-31
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.
• elephantower   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.