Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016.

Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• waveman estimated 70% on 2014-02-01
• waveman said “The point here is not to ridicule anyone’s efforts to lose weight but to calibrate my predicting, and to learn something about weight loss.” on 2014-02-01
• Tuxedage said “How will this be quantified? ” on 2014-02-13
• waveman said “Judging by his facebook pic the answer is he is still visibly overweight.” on 2015-01-02
• waveman   judged this prediction right on 2015-01-02.
• waveman   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-02.
• waveman   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-01-02.
• David estimated 80% on 2015-07-03
• David estimated 80% and said “This says “at the end of 2016” but the date known is set to the end of 2015.” on 2015-07-03
• RoryS estimated 70% on 2015-07-04
• jkadlubo estimated 20% and said “Given Brienne’s care, this seems less likely.” on 2015-07-04
• waveman changed the deadline from “on 2015-12-31” on 2015-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-01.
• waveman said “He has subsequently lost a lot of weight, and claims BF% of 24% down from 50%.” on 2020-01-01