By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency.
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known in 3 days; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
- ZLM estimated 70% on 2014-02-10
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2014-02-10
- lavalamp estimated 35% on 2014-02-12
- lavalamp said “Assuming you mean by market cap.” on 2014-02-12
- Michael Dickens estimated 80% and said “I doubt Bitcoin will be around by then; and if it still is, surely someone will have come up with something better and more popular.” on 2014-02-19
- Tuxedage estimated 50% on 2014-02-22
- Tuxedage said “Dogecoin. :)” on 2014-02-22
- gwern estimated 65% on 2014-02-24
- erikbjare estimated 80% on 2014-02-25
- Ken estimated 70% on 2014-06-11
- rebellionkid estimated 90% on 2014-06-12
- rydra_w estimated 70% on 2014-07-31
- RandomThinker estimated 45% on 2014-08-01
- Lovre estimated 55% on 2014-08-04
- spacemammoth judged this prediction right on 2014-08-05.
- lavalamp judged this prediction unknown on 2014-08-21.
- erikbjare estimated 50% on 2014-10-30
- kkoolook estimated 80% on 2015-01-11
- schepens estimated 50% on 2015-04-20
- JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-04-20
- axsys estimated 60% on 2015-05-22
- ArturoGoosnargh estimated 20% on 2015-07-30
- InquilineKea estimated 40% on 2015-07-30
- supinf estimated 71% on 2015-07-31
- unexpectedEOF estimated 50% on 2015-08-15
- sflicht said “I’m assuming the metric is something like USD-equivalent average daily transaction volume?” on 2015-08-25
- sflicht estimated 35% on 2015-08-25
- qznc estimated 30% on 2015-11-25
- PseudonymousUser estimated 65% and said “It should be by market cap (total number of coins times total dollar value). ” on 2015-11-27
- PseudonymousUser said “I.e., I’m assuming your prediction refers to market cap.” on 2015-11-27
- PseudonymousUser estimated 90% and said “9 years for some crazy country to force an exchange of its money for cryptocoin, or for a zerocash to catch on” on 2016-01-04
- VonFoerster estimated 70% on 2016-01-14
- equivrel estimated 80% on 2016-02-14
- mrmrpotatohead estimated 60% on 2016-03-23
- Pupu estimated 40% on 2016-05-11
- Medea estimated 70% on 2017-10-15
- davatk estimated 65% on 2018-05-01
- pranomostro estimated 30% on 2018-12-08
- pranomostro estimated 45% and said “On a second thought, ethereum seems like a serious competitor.” on 2018-12-08
- Baeboo estimated 55% on 2018-12-12
- deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
- asdfgeoff estimated 90% on 2020-10-25
- Deepak estimated 2% on 2020-10-25
- Meisel estimated 50% and said “The beautiful part of bitcoin is that none of us can know where the price is going. How relevant is asking what people’s confidence level in a catastrophic asteroid hitting earth by 2025?” on 2021-01-03
- JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2021-01-05
- sole21000 estimated 20% on 2021-01-07
- PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2021-08-12
- PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2021-08-12