Initial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-21; known on 2013-08-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 87% on 2011-03-21
• gwern estimated 70% on 2011-03-24
• PseudonymousUser estimated 81% on 2011-03-24
• PseudonymousUser estimated 65% and said “iPhone 5 might not be released until Fall. I’m betting against a chart that points at 1GB.” on 2011-03-27
• PseudonymousUser estimated 42% on 2011-03-29
• PseudonymousUser estimated 66% and said “iPhone 5 announcement rumored to be Sept 7, and they’ll probably use the same 512MB A5 that the iPad 2 has” on 2011-08-24
• PseudonymousUser changed the deadline from “on 2011-08-30” on 2011-09-05
• PseudonymousUser estimated 15% and said “http://9to5mac.com/2011/09/26/the-new-iphone/” on 2011-10-01
• PseudonymousUser said “This is going to sting on my accuracy graph” on 2011-10-01
• gimpf estimated 60% on 2011-10-08
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2011-11-06
• Jayson Virissimo said “This is about the iPhone5, not the iPhone4S right?” on 2011-11-06
• chemotaxis101 estimated 65% on 2011-11-15
• PseudonymousUser said “Yes, this is about the iPhone 5, not 4S. And by iPhone 5, I mean “next major iPhone model not shaped like a 4 or 4S.”” on 2011-11-15
• PseudonymousUser said ““iPhone 5” shaped like a 4/4S would count too. heh.” on 2011-11-15
• PseudonymousUser changed the deadline from “on 2011-11-30” on 2011-12-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on 2011-12-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 4% on 2012-07-29
• PseudonymousUser changed the deadline from “on 2012-07-30” on 2012-07-29
• PseudonymousUser changed the deadline from “on 2012-08-08” on 2012-08-28
• PseudonymousUser said “1GB” on 2012-09-12
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-09-12.