MtGox is insolvent. It currently holds less bitcoins or USD than the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it.
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-28.
- Tuxedage estimated 80% on 2014-02-22
- Tuxedage changed the deadline from “on 2014-07-13” and changed their prediction from “MtGox is insolvent. It currenty holds less bitcoins or USD that the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it.” on 2014-02-22
- oooo estimated 33% and said “Tighten up the prediction. For example, “MtGox is insolvent. Will declare insolvency/bankruptcy before June 30, 2014.”” on 2014-02-22
- Tuxedage said “I don’t feel a need to do that. If it is not clear whether mtgox is insolvent or not, I will declare this prediction “unknown”.” on 2014-02-24
- erikbjare estimated 50% on 2014-02-24
- gwern estimated 55% on 2014-02-24
- erikbjare judged this prediction right on 2014-02-25.
- gwern said “no official statements from mtgox, courts, lawyers, or accountants, so no, judging this is premature.” on 2014-02-25
- gwern judged this prediction unknown on 2014-02-25.
- gwern estimated 80% on 2014-02-25
- adbge estimated 80% on 2014-02-25
- procran estimated 90% on 2014-02-25
- gwern estimated 95% and said “http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2014/02/25/mt-gox-ceo-says-on-internet-chat-hasnt-given-up/” on 2014-02-25
- lavalamp estimated 95% on 2014-02-25
- PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2014-02-28
- ygert judged this prediction right on 2014-02-28.
- ygert said “https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/439333233013309440” on 2014-02-28