Agora marketplace will be severely hacked or taken down within a week.

Created by gwern on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-03-03.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2014-02-24
• gwern said “sever hack = roughly, lost of >10btc, leak of user passwords, something like that” on 2014-02-24
• Tuxedage estimated 20% on 2014-02-24
• gwern said “up (running a spider, even)” on 2014-03-03
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-03-03.