State of war has existed between Russian federation and at least one NATO member by 2016-01-01.

Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• simplicio estimated 7% on 2014-02-28
• procran estimated 15% on 2014-03-02
• chemotaxis101 estimated 8% on 2014-03-02
• drewmm estimated 5% on 2014-03-07
• gwern said “no declarations of war; marking wrong.” on 2016-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.