World War 3 will start by december 2014

Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

• refnum estimated 20% on 2014-03-03
• hedges estimated 1% on 2014-03-03
• scrafty estimated 0% on 2014-03-04
• Patrick Brinich-Langlois estimated 1% and said “We might not know until after 2014, though.” on 2014-03-06
• adbge estimated 1% on 2014-03-06
• chemotaxis101 estimated 1% on 2014-03-06
• lavalamp estimated 1% on 2014-03-06
• gwern estimated 1% on 2014-03-06
• mfb estimated 0% and said “<50% chance of such a war within 10 years = 120 months” on 2014-03-08
• Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2014-03-08
• Nathaniel.Everist estimated 1% on 2014-03-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2014-03-09
• Silver estimated 0% on 2014-03-10
• Peter Hurford estimated 0% and said ““World War 3” is not well-defined. Is it like a certain percentage of media referring to it as “WW3”? The Wikipedia article authoritatively and definitively calling it “WW3”?” on 2014-03-10
• fela estimated 1% on 2014-03-14
• sdr estimated 1% on 2014-03-17
• spqr0a1 estimated 1% on 2014-03-23
• procran estimated 1% on 2014-03-23
• raisin estimated 0% and said “.” on 2014-04-07
• kempykemp estimated 1% on 2014-04-11
• Ham Nox estimated 0% on 2014-04-28
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2014-05-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2014-05-07
• rebellionkid estimated 1% on 2014-05-22
• Rowan93 estimated 1% on 2014-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2014-10-09
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2014-10-13
• kuudes estimated 0% on 2014-10-27
• sweeneyrod estimated 0% on 2014-11-10
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-31.