Amazon Prime will cost $150 per year or less on Jan 1, 2017. Contingent upon no major changes in the Amazon prime system (e.g., no premium service, drones, or changes in shipping rates). Per convo w Chris S, who thinks Amazon is gonna start trying to actu

Created by Porejide on 2014-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• Porejide estimated 70% on 2014-03-03
• gwern said “still $99 https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=200966690” on 2017-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-01.