HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important.

Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.

• booradleytron estimated 80% on 2014-03-06
• solipsist estimated 20% and said “The name was important, in that it allowed the last word of chapter 51 to be a whammy.” on 2014-03-06
• slackson estimated 40% and said “I’m not entirely sure what you mean by important here. ” on 2014-03-07
• gwern estimated 40% on 2014-03-08
• booradleytron changed the deadline from “on 2014-10-16” and changed their prediction from “That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important.” on 2014-03-08
• booradleytron   judged this prediction right on 2014-03-14.
• solipsist   judged this prediction unknown on 2014-03-14.
• solipsist said “The word “will”, to my reading, implies in the future. No chapters have been released since the bet was set — how can it be judged correct or incorrect?” on 2014-03-14
• qznc estimated 5% and said “Bellatrix will play a part in the finale, but the name itself is not important.” on 2014-07-14
• Osuniev estimated 5% and said “unless you consider the chapter 51 ending to be “important”” on 2014-08-02
• booradleytron   judged this prediction right on 2014-10-21.
• solipsist said “Nothing released since the prediction was written has made the name Black important. Maybe booradleytron intended the question for themself alone, during the course of reading HP MOR for the first time?” on 2014-11-25
• Osuniev   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-28.