HP MoR: Before Quirrell strengthened the security on the Restricted section, Harry used Library magic to collate information on Horcruxes from scattered tales

Created by solipsist on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

• solipsist estimated 7% on 2014-03-06
• solipsist said “Lots of conjunctions” on 2014-03-06
• gwern estimated 25% and said “hm. in #74 HP abjures use of RS and confirms has not. but in #86, Dumbledore states to HP at least one immortality book was in RS, which might prompt a raid long before Hermione’s death, to say nothing of after it” on 2014-03-08
• solipsist changed the deadline from “on 2015-12-31” and changed their prediction from “HPMOR: Before Quirrell strengthened the security on the Restricted section, Harry used Library magic to collate information on Horcruxes from scattered tales” on 2014-03-08
• solipsist said “Clarification: This requires information-search-and-retrieval magic to exist, and Harry to have used that magic (off camera) to look for Horcruxes before the afternoon of the April 12th.” on 2014-03-11
• player_03 estimated 5% on 2014-04-26
• solipsist said “After 102, I’m more confident in my comparative advantage in HPMOR prediction. But “It iss called -” and Harry stopped, as he realized that he did know how to say the word in Parseltongue. “Horcrux.”” on 2014-07-28
• solipsist   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-14.