HP MoR: Sirius is not in Azkaban, and his replacement is Fudge

Created by gwern on 2014-03-10; known on 2015-03-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-10.

• gwern estimated 33% on 2014-03-10
• gwern said “original: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/jc8/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/ao55 alt: Pettigrew http://predictionbook.com/predictions/6503” on 2014-03-10
• slackson estimated 10% and said “If Fudge is a Chekhov’s Gun of some point, this seems like a really weird leap.” on 2014-03-13
• deskglass estimated 10% on 2014-05-14
• gwern said “With today’s chapter, it’s clear it was indeed Peter.” on 2015-03-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-10.