HP MoR: Sirius is not in Azkaban, and his replacement is Fudge
- gwern estimated 33% on 2014-03-10
- gwern said “original: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/jc8/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/ao55 alt: Pettigrew http://predictionbook.com/predictions/6503” on 2014-03-10
- slackson estimated 10% and said “If Fudge is a Chekhov’s Gun of some point, this seems like a really weird leap.” on 2014-03-13
- deskglass estimated 10% on 2014-05-14
- gwern said “With today’s chapter, it’s clear it was indeed Peter.” on 2015-03-10
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-10.
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