Nuclear problems in Japan will be solved at the end of April

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.

• minhduc estimated 70% on 2011-04-01
• etrecheesecake   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-04-07.
• kallman   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-04-10.
• kallman estimated 10% and said “Please don’t judge a prediction before its time expires unless the outcome is totally clear.” on 2011-04-10
• Ben Doherty estimated 20% on 2011-04-11
• gwern said “how would one judge this anyway? it seems to be under control and not worsening, but is that ‘solved’?” on 2011-05-10
• gwern said “They’re still pumping and reports are coming out that the initial reports were all lies and there was meltdown and meltthrough. marking wrong, not solved” on 2011-06-19
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-06-19.