“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer

Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.

• gwern estimated 0% on 2014-04-21
• gwern said “http://www.science20.com/quantum_gravity/blog/a_better_than_5050_chance_kepler186f_has_technological_life-134555” on 2014-04-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2014-04-22
• ChanL estimated 0% on 2014-04-23
• adbge estimated 0% on 2014-04-23
• lavalamp estimated 1% on 2014-04-23
• player_03 estimated 1% on 2014-04-24
• azax1 estimated 1% on 2014-04-25
• a0c4a123f7 estimated 0% and said “This approach could easily be automated. It’s not. Therefore it’s not worth automating. Therefore it’s weak evidence. So, for me, the prior wins.” on 2014-04-26
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2014-05-01
• procran estimated 0% on 2014-05-11
• aarongertler estimated 0% on 2014-05-11
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2014-05-13
• nshepperd estimated 0% on 2014-09-16
• jesselevine estimated 0% on 2015-04-28
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-04
• Pablo estimated 0% on 2019-04-13
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-04-22.