Google will be rebuffed in their attempt to acquire the Nortel patents

Created by kallman on 2011-04-10; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-01.

• kallman estimated 60% on 2011-04-10
• gwern estimated 40% and said “google seems to do many of these things just to raise the price” on 2011-04-12
• gwern estimated 60% and said “er, I meant 60% that they would fail, which by the rebuffed wording is 60% for. oops…” on 2011-06-30
• gwern said “they didn’t get it, marking right: http://www.cringely.com/2011/07/the-enemy-of-my-enemy/” on 2011-07-01
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-07-01.