I think that kadaffi will leave for Venuzuela within two months form now (april 15 2011)

Created by niekjetten on 2011-04-15; known on 2011-06-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-17.

• niekjetten estimated 70% on 2011-04-15
• gwern estimated 10% and said “Reads like surface detail/conjuntion fallacy. unlikely to leave in 2 months. unlikely to leave for venezuela. together, very unlikely” on 2011-05-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-05-22
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-06-17.