I think that kadaffi will leave for Venuzuela within two months form now (april 15 2011)
- niekjetten estimated 70% on 2011-04-15
- gwern estimated 10% and said “Reads like surface detail/conjuntion fallacy. unlikely to leave in 2 months. unlikely to leave for venezuela. together, very unlikely” on 2011-05-04
- JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-05-22
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2011-06-17.
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