The yes to AV vote will win by a narrow margin

Created by Jase9r on 2011-04-24; known on 2011-05-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-07.

  • Jase9r estimated 19% on 2011-04-24
  • Ben Doherty said “how big is a narrow margin?on 2011-04-25
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 40% on 2011-04-27
  • scav estimated 40% and said “Sadly, I think the campaign to persuade thick people that it is too hard to understand will be successful :( I expect a narrow NO win.on 2011-05-04
  • gwern said “nope; rejected solidly: 2011-05-07
  • gwern said “a side note, ‘narrow margin’ is too narrow a prediction – wouldn’t it’ve been better to predict merely about pass/fail?on 2011-05-07
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-05-07.

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